Members’ area

Serafine Dinkel

GEM-DIAMOND doctoral fellow

ESR 15 – Impact of competing models on the EU’s political conditionality in a turbulent neighbourhood

Serafine is a Marie Skłodowska Curie Fellow at the Université libre de Bruxelles, the University of Warwick and the University of Amsterdam. Her research focuses on EU enlargement and neighbourhood policy, and EU relations with Georgia and Serbia.

Host Institutions

EU Norms Promotion in Geopolitical Context. A Comparative Perspective on EU Conditionality in Georgia and Serbia

Supervisors

  • Seda Gurkan
  • Ozlem Atikcan
  • Guido Snel

Research abstract

My research addresses why institutional approximation to the EU—especially when tied to political conditionality—does not necessarily lead to normative compliance, but instead reveals persistent patterns of contestation. I examine the interaction between: 1) domestic patterns of non-compliance, often linked to challenges to liberal democracy, and 2) foreign policy practices that may actively contest the EU. Using process-tracing and content analysis of documents and interviews, I explore these dynamics in two countries from 2012 onward.

This research is particularly relevant in light of post-2022 shifts in EU external governance. The allocation of candidate status to three Eastern Partnership countries, including Georgia, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, constituted a shift impacting not only new candidates but also long-waiting ones in the Western Balkans.

These developments occur in a broader context where democratic norms are increasingly challenged, both within the EU and its neighbourhood. Many of the countries it attempts to bind to itself have experienced stalled or reversed democratization during the accession process. Importantly, autocratization does not unfold in isolation but is embedded in global trends. External powers, through coercion and disinformation, attempt to shape domestic political structures in countries the EU aims to integrate.

However, external influences only partly explain the trajectory of EU approximation. Domestic actors ultimately determine how such pressures play out. This brings the focus back to my central hypothesis: that institutional approximation with the EU does not ensure the adoption of EU political norms. Rather, these norms, the process itself, and even the EU orientation are frequently contested by domestic governments in target countries. Understanding how such contestation intersects with both internal governance dynamics and external pressures provides deeper insight into the EU’s evolving international role and the future of a democratic, enlarged Union.
Serafine is a Marie Skłodowska Curie Doctoral Fellow at the Université libre de Bruxelles, the University of Warwick and the University of Amsterdam within the Horizon Europe GEM-DIAMOND project (Globalisation, Europe, and Multilateralism - Democratic Institutions, the rise of Alternative Models and mounting Normative Dissensus). Her doctoral project, supervised by Seda Gürkan and Ece Özlem Atikcan, examines the EU's political conditionality in Serbia and Georgia in geopolitical context.

Her published research focuses on EU external governance and strategy, EU enlargement policy and German foreign policy. As part of her PhD, Serafine is a resident fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS). She was also an Associate Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

Prior to her PhD, she contributed to a high-level strategy project focusing on the EU’s capacity to act at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). She also worked as a Blue Book Trainee at the European External Action Service, as a researcher at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, and served as a research assistant at the Chair of European and International Politics at the University of St. Gallen.

Serafine holds an MA in international security from Sciences Po Paris and an MA in international affairs and governance from the University of St. Gallen, as well as a BA in social and political sciences from Sciences Po Paris’ Franco-German program.
Publications (selected)

with Tena Prelec. 'Policy-Oriented Research.' [forthcoming]. In Coman, Paternotte and Ponjaert (eds.), Handbook on Impact in Social Sciences.

'Mapping Multilevel Dissensus: unpacking internal and external dissensus on EU enlargement policy.' [forthcoming]. In Coman, Levrat and Ponjaert (eds.). Dissensus over liberal democracy: actors, policies, and institutions.

'Teaming Up to Compete: How the EU and the United States Can Manage Geopolitics In the
Western Balkans'. 2024, Dec 20. German Marshall Fund of the United States.
https://www.gmfus.org/news/teaming-compete-how-eu-and-united-states-can-manage-geopolitics-western-balkans.

'In Georgia, the Future of Democracy is on the Ballot.' 2024, Oct 15. with Elene Kintsurashvili. German
Marshall Fund of the Unites States.https://www.gmfus.org/news/georgia-future-democracy-ballot.

Overcoming Geopolitical Enlargement Anxiety. Internationale Politik Quarterly (2023, Dec 4). https://ip-quarterly.com/en/overcoming-geopolitical-enlargement-anxiety.

Europas Verantwortung in der Welt. Eine deutsch-nordisch-baltische Perspektive [Europe’s responsibility in the world. A German-Nordic-Baltic perspective]. Integration 1/23. doi.org/10.5771/0720-5120-2023-1-59.

Dinkel, Serafine, Schirwon, Dana and Stamm, Leonie. Integrating Feminist Foreign Policy Into the National Security Strategy (2022, Jul 27). German Council on Foreign Relations, DGAP Policy Brief 20. https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/defining-feminist-foreign-policy-germanys-national-security-strategy.

Dinkel, Serafine, Kirch, Anna-Lena and McQuay, Mark. Towards an Inclusive Europe, Inside and Out (2022, May 16). DGAP Online Commentary. https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/toward-inclusive-eu-inside-and-out.

Dinkel, Serafine. Buzzword Bingo in EU Security: Why “Resilience” Risks Becoming the New “Strategic Autonomy” (2022, Jan 25). DGAP Online Commentary. https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/buzzword-bingo-eu-security.

Dinkel, Serafine. (2021, Jan 3). Nordische Resilienz lernen [Learning Nordic Resilience]. Internationale Politik Special Nr. 2/ 2022. https://internationalepolitik.de/de/nordische-resilienz-lernen.

Parkes, Roderick, Schimmel, Florence, and Dinkel, Serafine. (2021, Dec 8). Strategic Compass: Petals Worth Adding to its Rose. TEPSA Recommendations 2021. http://www.tepsa.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/TEPSA-Recommendations-to-the-French-Presidency-final-3.pdf.

Kirch, Anna-Lena, Dinkel, Serafine, and Kabisch, Fanny. (2021, Dec 7). Municipal Foreign Policy. Resilient Cities Foster Germany’s Capacity to Act. DGAP Memo No. 16. https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/municipal-foreign-policy.

Dinkel, Serafine and Gelhaus, Laura. (2021, Oct 1). Geopolitics in Europe’s Neighborhood: New Strategies for the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership. DGAP Memo No. 11. https://dgap.org/sites/default/files/article_pdfs/DGAP-MEMO-BTW21_11_EN.pdf.

Parkes, Roderick, Kirch, Anna-Lena, and Dinkel, Serafine. (2021, Jul 2). Building European Resilience and Capacity to Act: Lessons for 2030. DGAP Report No 13. https://dgap.org/en/research/publications/building-european-resilience-and-capacity-act.

Invited Talks (selected)
- TEPSA Academy on EU enlargement, June 2024
- IRSEM conference on external influences in the Western Balkans, June 2024
- EU foreign policy after the EU parliamentary elections, University of Passau, July 2024

Media (selected)
- Interview with La Libre on Georgian elections, December 2024
- Talkshow 'Brussels my love', Euronews, October 2024